Value capture and export upgrading in emerging agri-food economies: a scenario-based decision-support study of Tunisian olive oil

Purpose This study examines how Tunisia's olive-oil sector can reduce dependence on low-value bulk exports and increase domestic value capture. Design/methodology/approach A scenario-based deterministic-equivalent linear optimization model allocates olive oil among bulk, packaged, premium, storage and domestic channels under stylized harvest-and-price scenarios. Five upgrading strategies are compared using the Bulk Dependence Ratio and Value Capture Index. Findings Under the adopted assumptions, the diversified value-added strategy lowers expected bulk dependence from 0.863 to 0.453, raises the Value Capture Index from 0.835 to 1.000 and increases expected net value from 2610.9 to 3127.9 million Tunisian dinars. Research limitations/implications Several cost, storage, premium and market-access parameters are transparent scenario assumptions rather than firm-level observations; results are therefore conditional decision-support evidence, not forecasts. Originality/value The paper operationalizes export upgrading as a constrained downstream allocation problem linking bulk dependence, domestic value capture, capacity, market access and scenario stress testing in an emerging agri-food economy.