Rapid lake expansion threatens the regional environment and residents on the Tibetan Plateau

Tibetan Plateau (TP) lakes, closely linked to climate change, have expanded rapidly in recent years. Prior research has mainly focused on the changes and causes; however, the risks to local infrastructure remain uncertain. This study evaluated the 20‐year impacts of lake expansion. Since 2011, we have identified 17,526 housing sites around 176 lakes via Google Earth image visual interpretation. The lake area increased by 3269.39 km 2 during 1999–2019, and 27 lakes inundated 119 housing sites during this period. Furthermore, the lake area will increase by 3380.15 km 2 by 2030 and 6737.35 km 2 by 2040 compared to 2019, respectively, except for the lakes with overflow risk. During these two periods, 904 and 1735 housing sites will be at risk of inundation, 14 and 21 lakes will overflow, and 12 and 19 lakes will merge, respectively. We found that the average rising rate of lake level over the last two decades was much higher than that found in previous research on the prediction of lake change in different scenarios, and therefore more attention should be paid to the potential risks. This study aids in assessing lake expansion risks and decision‐making on the TP, particularly for lakes with household inundation and overflow.