Heterogeneity in temporal dynamics of pain and affect among individuals with chronic back pain and associations with risk for future opioid-related problems

Chronic low back pain (CLBP) is a biopsychosocial phenomenon involving complex relationships between pain and psychosocial factors. In preregistered analyses, we examined dynamic relationships between pain and negative affect among individuals with CLBP (N = 87). We found that increased negative affect was concurrently and prospectively associated with increased pain for individuals on average. However, there was significant and meaningful between-person variability in these effects, such that risk for future opioid-related problems was positively associated with the within-persons correlation between pain and negative affect (β = 0.290, 95% credible interval [CI] = [0.071, 0.485]), the degree to which pain predicted increased negative affect (β = 0.439, 95% CI = [0.044, 0.717]), and the autoregressive effect of negative affect over 4-hr lags (β = 0.255, 95% CI = [0.007, 0.478]). These results suggest that variability in within-person symptom dynamics may help identify chronic pain patients who are at greater risk of opioid-related problems.