Another Look at the Burgess Hypothesis: Time as an Important Variable

The concentric circle theory of E. W. Burgess and some contradictory evidence derived from other cross-sectional analyses of the socioeconomic structure of cities is reexamined here with a longitudinal approach to assess the influence of time on the emergence of a pattern of socioecomonic status distribution within cities. The application of a Markov Chain to changes in the socieconomic chacteristics of tracts form 1940 to 1960 suggests a general evolutionary process. Although not evident in cross-sectional analysis, there is a trend toward a direct relationship between socioeconomic status and distance from city center even within cities which show an inverse cross-sectional relationship at present.