Why the study?
Guidelines have increasingly incorporated predicted cardiovascular disease risk alongside reducing blood pressure thresholds, but data assessing the relative importance of blood pressure thresholds versus predicted risk on subsequent cardiovascular disease rates were needed to inform treatment decisions.
Does predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk better predict cardiovascular disease rates than systolic blood pressure thresholds in adults aged 30-79?
Population
1 098 991 patients aged 30-79 years in England
Comparison
Stratification by systolic blood pressure vs predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk
Design
Population-based cohort study
Follow-up
Median of 4·3 years
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May delay drugs for lifestyle attempts if predicted risk is low; leaves open de-emphasizing 140/90 thresholds in guidelines.
Does predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk better predict cardiovascular disease rates than systolic blood pressure thresholds in adults aged 30-79?
Predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk is a much stronger determinant of subsequent cardiovascular disease rates than isolated systolic blood pressure thresholds, suggesting risk-based rather than threshold-based treatment initiation is more effective.
A 2022 study studied this question.
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