Robots, diffusion, and convergence: does automation reduce regional productivity gaps?

This study examines whether industrial intelligence narrows or widens regional productivity gaps. Using panel data for 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2022, it estimates the effect of industrial intelligence on inter-city total factor productivity (TFP) gaps. The results show that industrial intelligence significantly reduces TFP gaps through catch-up effects, and this finding remains robust across multiple endogeneity and sensitivity tests. Mechanism analysis identifies two key channels: industrial structure optimization and cross-regional technology transfer. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the convergence effect is stronger in cities with weaker manufacturing bases, in non-old industrial cities, and at earlier stages of intelligent development, consistent with a latecomer advantage. Marketization and human capital further amplify this effect, which also exhibits persistence over time. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that diffusing industrial intelligence helps narrow regional productivity disparities and foster balanced economic development.