Experimental evaluation of PV performance degradation following damage for hourly generation forecasting

The rapid deployment of renewable energy in conflict-affected regions necessitates accurate performance assessment of damaged infrastructure. The primary objective of this research is to develop a high-precision model for forecasting electricity generation in solar power plants (SPPs) that operate under non-nominal parameters due to kinetic damage and partial restoration following missile strikes. The study investigates a grid-tied utility-scale SPP located in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine. The damage event is characterized by kinetic impacts from missile strikes (MS), which resulted in both localized physical degradation (micro-cracks and cell destruction) and a regional increase in atmospheric aerosol optical depth. The results demonstrate that kinetic damage from missile strikes creates a complex degradation profile that cannot be captured by standard aging models. The methodological approach involves a comparative analysis of the system’s operational parameters–specifically the maximum specific hourly average power (MSHAP) – before and after the MS. By utilizing multivariate regression analysis, the relationship between the hourly average solar angle (HASA), azimuth, and power output was quantified. The novelty of this research lies in the development of a synergistic forecasting methodology that, for the first time, integrates localized kinetic damage profiles with regional atmospheric turbidity shifts. Unlike conventional degradation studies, the proposed PGM provides a robust mathematical framework for energy resilience in conflict-affected regions, enabling precise generation forecasting for infrastructure operating under extreme non-nominal conditions.