Atmospheric Density Error Propagation Model and Sensitivity Analysis Based on Falling-Sphere Technology

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Meteorological rocket falling-sphere technology is a crucial method for middle-atmosphere exploration, but its measurement accuracy is affected by various error sources. Based on the falling-sphere detection principle, this study establishes a multi-level error propagation model for atmospheric density retrieval and employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to identify key influencing factors. The results indicate that errors in vertical velocity, acceleration, wind speed, drag coefficient, and cross-sectional area significantly impact atmospheric density calculations at different altitudes. This research provides methodological support for improving middle-atmosphere data accuracy and offers valuable insights for aerodynamic environment modeling in spacecraft reentry and hypersonic vehicle applications.