What question did this study set out to answer?

To identify viable settlement locations and project urban expansion through 2045 within environmental land carrying capacity limits in a disaster-prone prospective administrative center.

August 15, 2026F1000ResearchOpen Access

DETERMINATION OF POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT BASED ON LAND CARRYING CAPACITY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (Case Study: Karangnunggal Subdistrict)

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Authors

RWRandy Victor Wahab WattimenaBandung Islamic University SSSaraswati SaraswatiBandung Islamic University YAYulia AsyiawatiBandung Islamic University

Discussion

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Implication

Spatial modeling study demonstrates accurate projection of settlement expansion within land carrying capacity limits, highlighting sustainable urban growth planning in hazard-prone regions.

Key Points

To identify viable settlement locations and project urban expansion through 2045 within environmental land carrying capacity limits in a disaster-prone prospective administrative center.
Assessed land capability using nine Land Capability Units (LCU) alongside a spatial planning carrying capacity threshold (60:40 built-up to open space ratio).
Simulated land cover dynamics through 2045 using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Cellular Automata (CA) via the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS incorporating driving and constraint variables.
Identified 9,154.36 Ha (60% of total subdistrict area) as potential land carrying capacity zones suitable for development.
Achieved high model validation accuracy, with a 97.17529% correctness rate and an overall Kappa coefficient of 0.96743.
Projected settlement area expansion from 1,248.39 Ha in 2015 and 1,770.39 Ha in 2020 to 2,617.95 Ha by 2045, centered predominantly around administrative hubs.

Cite This Study

Wattimena et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8019bb75c2e31742c85d90 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.188333.1

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Implication

Spatial modeling study demonstrates accurate projection of settlement expansion within land carrying capacity limits, highlighting sustainable urban growth planning in hazard-prone regions.

DETERMINATION OF POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT BASED ON LAND CARRYING CAPACITY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (Case Study: Karangnunggal Subdistrict)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

DETERMINATION OF POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT BASED ON LAND CARRYING CAPACITY USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (Case Study: Karangnunggal Subdistrict)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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