What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate reasonable worst-case climate risks and establish sector-specific adaptation pathways under high and low adaptive capacity conditions through the year 2100.

August 15, 2026GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society

High-end climate change risks for Germany: Adaptive capacity between incrementalism and transformative adaptation

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Authors

FRFritz ReußwigPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research WKWalter KahlenbornAdelphi Research WLWiebke LassPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Implication

Scenario analysis reveals severe sector-specific climate breakdowns under worst-case warming pathways, indicating an urgent need for transformative adaptive capacity and rapid decarbonization.

Key Points

To evaluate reasonable worst-case climate risks and establish sector-specific adaptation pathways under high and low adaptive capacity conditions through the year 2100.
Simulated high-end climate change projections applying a worst-case risk management perspective.
Developed and evaluated sectoral adaptation pathways up to 2100 under contrasting scenarios of high and low societal and political adaptive capacity.
Severe sector-specific breakdowns are projected to occur before 2050 under low adaptive capacity conditions.
High adaptive capacity delays but does not eliminate severe sectoral failures, which are projected to emerge shortly after 2050 without rapid decarbonization.

Cite This Study

Reußwig et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8019db75c2e31742c8615a https://doi.org/10.14512/gaia.35.3.10

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Implication

Scenario analysis reveals severe sector-specific climate breakdowns under worst-case warming pathways, indicating an urgent need for transformative adaptive capacity and rapid decarbonization.

High-end climate change risks for Germany: Adaptive capacity between incrementalism and transformative adaptation

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

High-end climate change risks for Germany: Adaptive capacity between incrementalism and transformative adaptation

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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Also Consider