IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 35.2% (+3.7pp, n=392) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase distance TIGHT (≤2°) filter over the current trade window would have rejected the EURUSD SHORT (loss), GBPUSD LONG (loss), and possibly the USDJPY LONG (win) depending on phase alignment at entry. The two losses removed would have improved the window's net PnL, but the USDJPY win removal would partially offset that gain. Net effect: win rate would shift from ~50% (5 wins out of 10) to ~57% (4 wins out of 7), with a modest PnL improvement of roughly +0.3–0.5% over the window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +3.7pp win-rate improvement from the backtest suggests a meaningful reduction in false signals, but the sample (n=392) is moderate and may include regime-specific advantages. Risk: the filter may reject high-volatility breakout trades that have wider phase spreads Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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