Constrained divergence in multi-level systems: the case of skill formation in the United Kingdom

This article introduces the concept of ‘constrained divergence’ to examine how nationally bounded welfare regimes and growth models limit subnational policy divergence despite a clear intention to achieve policy outcomes different from those at the centre. We illustrate the concept through the example of skill formation in the devolved nations of Scotland and Wales within the welfare regime and growth model of the United Kingdom. We find significant subnational divergence in policy rhetoric and governance congruent with differences in partisan politics. However, we find less evidence of divergence in policy outputs and outcomes. We expect that the findings are generalizable, reinforcing the argument that subnational policies cannot be fully isolated from national contexts. Thus, while acknowledging subnational dynamics, we expose the risks of replacing ‘methodological nationalism’ with ‘methodological sub-nationalism’. Instead, we argue for a balanced comparative research approach that incorporates both national and subnational perspectives in welfare state analysis.