Cost-effectiveness analysis of regorafenib dose optimization for refractory metastatic colorectal cancer

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

BACKGROUND: New regimens have emerged as third-line or later therapies for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), including regorafenib dose optimization (ReDO), trifluridine/tipiracil and bevacizumab (TAS-BEV) combination therapy, and fruquintinib. We evaluated relative cost-effectiveness of these therapies in patients with mCRC from a US payer's perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A partitioned survival model (PSM) was constructed to estimate total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Clinical parameters were obtained from pivotal trials of the respective therapies and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated to assess relative cost-effectiveness of these treatments. Model robustness was assessed using deterministic (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Three scenario analyses were conducted: (1) assuming equal efficacy across treatments, (2) with prior exposure to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy, and (3) alternative clinical inputs for fruquintinib from a different clinical trial. RESULTS: Under the conventional willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in US ($150,000 per QALY gained), ReDO was cost-effective when compared with TAS-BEV and was dominant over fruquintinib. TAS-BEV was associated with an incremental QALY of 0.197 over ReDO, resulting in an ICER at $554,567 per QALY gained. The base case results were robust in DSA and PSA. Most influential parameters were treatment cost and effectiveness. In patients with prior anti-VEGF therapy, ReDO remained cost-effective compared to TAS-BEV and fruquintinib under the conventional WTP threshold. LIMITATION: Differences in trial populations may affect the comparability of the outcomes. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to address these limitations. CONCLUSION: ReDO was cost-effective compared with TAS-BEV from the US payer's perspective despite a higher QALY gain associated with TAS-BEV. ReDO was dominant over fruquintinib, consistently having a higher QALY gain and lower cost.