Dependence of Antarctic surface mass balance on temperature, elevation, and distance to open ocean

The latest compilations of surface mass balance, mean annual surface temperature, and elevation for the Antarctic ice sheet, derived from data sets of approximately 1500, 700, and 10 5 points, respectively, have been used to obtain areally integrated means for 24 ice drainage systems and 329 grid point values covering the whole ice sheet. Monthly summaries of remotely sensed sea ice data for 1973–1976 have been used to obtain mean annual distance to open ocean. Linear and second‐order regression analyses of surface balance on (1) temperature for the entire ice sheet, (2) elevation for the conterminous grounded ice, and (3) distance to the open ocean for the ice shelves (including ice rises and attached islands) have been made using both system means and grid point values. These analyses show correlation coefficients of between 0.63 and 0.81, and they provide bases for descriptive models of the present Antarctic ice sheet, as well as for predictive models of the response of the ice sheet to air temperature changes and variations in meridional mass and energy transfers. Extrapolation to other ice sheets, past and present, may be possible but should be made cautiously. Linear models are recommended for paleoclimatic reconstructions of ice sheets in upper mid‐latitudes, and second‐order models are recommended for those in high latitudes. System means are shown to be reliable for these purposes. Incidental results are new estimates of the mean annual surface temperature for the whole ice sheet (−36°C) and mean surface elevation for the conterminous grounded ice (2290 m).