Population, Carbon Emmissions, and Global Warming: The Forgotten Relationship at Kyoto

The Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change if ratified will legally require its 38 developed country Annex 1 signatories to reduce their annual net carbon emissions during 2008-12 to an average of 5.2% under 1990 levels. The protocol requires the countries to hold emissions to 92-110% of their 1990 emissions levels. Countries which are unable to meet the required reductions may buy excess quotas from countries whose performance exceeds the requirements through an international trading system to be negotiated at a later date. Developing countries have been asked to set voluntary reduction targets and may in the future be able to participate through the yet-to-be negotiated clean development mechanism. The author reviews the historical relationship between population growth and carbon emissions and the projected trends then analyzes the challenges facing the signatory countries. Projections and observations are made in closing on the long-term relationship between population development and global warming.