Insights Into Electric Vehicle Market Growth in South Africa: A System Dynamics Approach

The international share of plug-in electric vehicle sales was 8.6% in 2021, compared with South Africa’s 0.1%. Increasing the sale of these vehicles in South Africa is directly tied to the continued existence of South Africa’s vehicle manufacturing industry. To address this challenge, businesses and governments need to understand better the factors influencing electric vehicle adoption. This study identified significant factors that influence and are influenced by electric vehicle adoption. By reviewing the current literature, numerous factors were identified and mapped in a causal loop diagram with an adapted system dynamics approach. The impact of taxation on the cost of electric vehicles and the low availability of electricity negatively affects both consumer confidence in owning an electric vehicle and local manufacturing capacity. This model serves as a useful tool to piece together how various factors in South Africa affect and are affected by electric vehicle adoption.