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Develop and validate a hybrid machine learning framework with dynamic risk warnings to forecast electricity spot market price spike probabilities under high renewable energy penetration.

August 16, 2026Advanced ElectromagneticsOpen Access

Consideration of High Proportion Renewable Energy Penetration in Electricity Spot Market Price Spike Probability Forecasting and Risk Early Warning

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Authors

MCM. Y. ChenPower Grid Corporation (India)LQL. QiPower Grid Corporation (India)WZW. B. ZhengPower Grid Corporation (India)

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Implication

Validation study demonstrates enhanced electricity price spike probability forecasting during high renewable energy penetration, suggesting improved risk management for power markets.

Key Points

Develop and validate a hybrid machine learning framework with dynamic risk warnings to forecast electricity spot market price spike probabilities under high renewable energy penetration.
Designed a hybrid quantile regression forest–long short-term memory (QRF-LSTM) framework to model market distribution uncertainties and temporal dependencies.
Formulated a dynamic risk early warning mechanism that adaptively adjusts alert thresholds based on real-time renewable and market forecasts.
Evaluated performance using empirical data from the German electricity spot market (2019–2023) evaluated with Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) metrics.
Achieved a 14.2% improvement in forecasting accuracy over the standalone QRF model under renewable penetration levels exceeding 40% based on CRPS metrics.
Demonstrated that price spike probabilities escalate nonlinearly beyond critical renewable penetration thresholds, particularly during evening wind power ramping periods.

Cite This Study

Chen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a81794cf2fb91fc834ac630 https://doi.org/10.7716/aem.v15i3.3289

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Implication

Validation study demonstrates enhanced electricity price spike probability forecasting during high renewable energy penetration, suggesting improved risk management for power markets.

Consideration of High Proportion Renewable Energy Penetration in Electricity Spot Market Price Spike Probability Forecasting and Risk Early Warning

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Key Points

Cite This Study

Consideration of High Proportion Renewable Energy Penetration in Electricity Spot Market Price Spike Probability Forecasting and Risk Early Warning

Discussion

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Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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