Climate change and conservation of caecilians (order Gymnophiona): prediction of distributional shifts and risk assessment in Chiapas, Mexico

Introduction Caecilians (Order Gymnophiona) remain poorly understood due to their fossorial lifestyle, which limits detection and ecological knowledge. This study is framed within the climate niche tracking theory, which posits that species may shift their geographic distributions to maintain suitable environmental conditions under climate change. We also evaluate the conservation mismatch hypothesis, which suggests that static protected natural areas become increasingly ineffective as species distributions shift beyond their boundaries In this study, we analyzed three species of caecilians ( Dermophis mexicanus , Dermophis oaxacae and Gymnopis syntrema ) in Chiapas, Mexico, to examine projected spatial and altitudinal changes and their representation within protected natural areas under future climate scenarios. Methods We developed species distribution models under current and future conditions using two climate scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for 2060 and 2100, based on 235 occurrence records. From these models, we quantified changes in geographic range and elevation and estimated a protection index at both species-specific and overall levels. Results We found marginally significant differences in predicted distribution area across scenarios (Friedman χ² = 11.571, p = 0.041). Altitudinal shifts were not significant (Friedman χ² = 3.41, p = 0.64), indicating no consistent pattern among species. Protected natural areas coverage declined from 58% under current conditions to 27% under severe scenarios by the end of the century. Discussion Our results reveal an increasing mismatch between species distributions and protected natural areas under climate change, underscoring the need for more dynamic conservation strategies that account for spatial and elevational shifts.