What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine whether municipal exposure to surges in community violence and homicide rates predicts subsequent changes in suicide rates over short- and long-term horizons.

August 16, 2026Population and Development ReviewOpen Access

Does Exposure to Community Violence Predict Higher Suicide Rates? The Case of Mexico

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Authors

MCMónica L. Caudillo JLJaein Lee

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Overview

Population-based analysis reveals acute homicide surges increase municipal suicide rates within six months in Mexico, indicating that violent spikes trigger immediate psychological distress.

Key Points

To determine whether municipal exposure to surges in community violence and homicide rates predicts subsequent changes in suicide rates over short- and long-term horizons.
Analyzed nationwide geocoded death certificate microdata spanning all municipalities across Mexico from 2000 to 2019.
Evaluated short-term (within six months) and long-term longitudinal associations between municipal homicide surges relative to a 3-year baseline and subsequent suicide rates.
Homicide rate spikes were positively associated with increased suicide rates within six months of exposure relative to the prior 3-year baseline.
Observed suicide increases immediately following violent spikes were primarily driven by auto-inflicted strangulation.
Suicide rates showed no significant alterations beyond six months of exposure or under cumulative long-term homicide exposure.

Cite This Study

Caudillo et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8179cbf2fb91fc834ad27a https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70080

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August 16, 2026Population and Development ReviewOpen Access

Does Exposure to Community Violence Predict Higher Suicide Rates? The Case of Mexico

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

MCMónica L. Caudillo JLJaein Lee

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Population-based analysis reveals acute homicide surges increase municipal suicide rates within six months in Mexico, indicating that violent spikes trigger immediate psychological distress.

Key Points

To determine whether municipal exposure to surges in community violence and homicide rates predicts subsequent changes in suicide rates over short- and long-term horizons.
Analyzed nationwide geocoded death certificate microdata spanning all municipalities across Mexico from 2000 to 2019.
Evaluated short-term (within six months) and long-term longitudinal associations between municipal homicide surges relative to a 3-year baseline and subsequent suicide rates.
Homicide rate spikes were positively associated with increased suicide rates within six months of exposure relative to the prior 3-year baseline.
Observed suicide increases immediately following violent spikes were primarily driven by auto-inflicted strangulation.
Suicide rates showed no significant alterations beyond six months of exposure or under cumulative long-term homicide exposure.

Cite This Study

Caudillo et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8179cbf2fb91fc834ad27a https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70080

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