Do modernized irrigation systems lead to an increase in irrigated areas and changes in crop rotations? Assessing rebound effects in Uzbekistan

Rebound effects in the context of implementing modernized irrigation systems occur as humans adapt their behaviour. Mechanisms that reduce water savings include expansion of irrigated areas or changes in crop rotations. We analysed state-reported and remote sensing data from Uzbekistan’s Kashkadarya region. Between 2018 and 2024, the share of modernized irrigation systems (including drip and sprinkler irrigation or application of laser-levelling) increased from 4% to 51%. Agricultural area increased by 14%, cotton and wheat production areas decreased by −12% and −15%, though productivity increases stabilized their total yields. Production areas for fodder and other crops increased by +35% and +187%. Our results provide evidence of rebound effects associated with irrigation modernization in Uzbekistan.