Anthropogenic emissions mitigation weakens projected springtime dust intensification in Africa

Mitigation of anthropogenic emissions can influence mineral dust not only by limiting global warming but also by reshaping regional circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we use fully coupled CESM2.1.3 simulations to compare future African springtime dust under a China-aligned global emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target (SSP2-com) and a baseline experiment in which anthropogenic emissions are held at their 2023 levels (Fix2023). By the late twenty-first century, dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases over much of Africa in both experiments, but the increase is substantially weaker over the southern Sahara–Sahel region under SSP2-com. Within the main 10°–20°N source belt, Fix2023 produces a stronger North Africa–North Atlantic thermal contrast, a larger circulation response, and greater strengthening of low-level easterly winds, favoring dust mobilization and transport. Farther south, where the correspondence between local wind and dust AOD is weaker, smaller increases in the frequencies of high-temperature and dry days under SSP2-com point to a complementary hydroclimatic influence through meteorological conditions conducive to surface drying. The regional contrast therefore reflects spatially heterogeneous dynamical and hydroclimatic processes rather than a uniform wind-speed control. These results demonstrate that a mitigation pathway aligned with the 2 °C target can substantially limit projected African springtime dust intensification.