AI competition is widely framed as a winner-take-all race. Mobile consumer data for the AI assistant category from 2023 through 2025 suggests otherwise: three strategies coexist, and all are growing. Scale (ChatGPT), adjacency (Gemini), and premium specialization (Claude) capture value in strategically distinct ways. Major launches reward the launcher without measurably harming rivals. These archetypes are not unique to AI; they recur whenever a disruptive technology opens a market before competition settles. For managers, the most important question is which strategy their distribution, economics, and customer base can sustain.
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Cohen et al. (2026) studied this question.
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