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Provide an updated performance evaluation of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction multi-model ensemble (ICAP-MME) using an expanded suite of nine global operational aerosol models from 2012 to 2017.

February 5, 2019Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyOpen Access

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

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Authors

PXPeng XianNaval Meteorology and Oceanography Command JRJeffrey S. ReidMonterey Institute for Technology and Education EHE. J. HyerNaval Postgraduate School

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Implication

Ensemble evaluation demonstrates superior forecast skill and stability for the ICAP consensus across global aerosol models, indicating persistent advantages over individual forecast systems.

Key Points

Provide an updated performance evaluation of the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction multi-model ensemble (ICAP-MME) using an expanded suite of nine global operational aerosol models from 2012 to 2017.
Evaluated operational aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts against ground-based AERONET measurements and data assimilation quality MODIS satellite retrievals from 2012 to 2017, focusing on June 2016 to May 2017.
Assessed performance across total, fine-mode, coarse-mode, and dust AOD metrics using root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean bias, and correlation at 21 regionally representative sites.
Developed regression models based on ensemble consensus mean and spread to quantify and predict absolute forecast errors across various forecast lead times.
The ICAP-MME consensus consistently achieved the lowest RMSE, lowest bias, and highest correlation for total, fine-mode, coarse-mode, and dust AOD relative to all individual operational models.
The multi-model ensemble demonstrated greater temporal stability and reliability over multiple years compared to the higher variability observed in individual component models.
Regional evaluations across 2012–2017 revealed progressive improvements in fine-mode AOD RMSE, particularly over Asia, while coarse-mode AOD showed no significant overall improvement.

Cite This Study

Xian et al. (2019) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a82162e9018752dff9cd231 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3497

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Implication

Ensemble evaluation demonstrates superior forecast skill and stability for the ICAP consensus across global aerosol models, indicating persistent advantages over individual forecast systems.

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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