Capability Change, Economic Dependence and Alliance Termination

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

What causes an asymmetric alliance to end? This study explores how changes in the capabilities of the weaker ally in an asymmetric alliance can cause the alliance to end. Here I argue that, since the weaker ally in the asymmetric alliance is vulnerable to the influence of the stronger ally, an increase in the capabilities of the weaker ally can increase the likelihood of alliance termination. That is, the underlying motivation of the weaker ally to gain (or restore) more autonomy can increase the likelihood of termination. More precisely, I argue that the effect of the change in capabilities of the weaker ally on alliance termination is conditional upon its economic dependence on the stronger ally. A weaker ally that is highly dependent economically on its strong partner may be restrained from seeking autonomy because it could hamper ongoing economic relations with the stronger ally. Thus, I hypothesize that when there is an increase in the capabilities of the weaker ally, an alliance in which the weaker ally’s economic dependence is high is less likely to result in termination than an alliance in which the weaker ally’s economic dependence is low. Empirical analysis lends strong support to this hypothesis.