To Wear a Nostradamus Hat: Drugs and America

A review of historical patterns in drug use suggests common forms of use, likely social responses to innovation, the conditions under which drug use patterns change and the notion of “abuse” is most probable, and the conditions under which most unpredictable drug use and outcomes will occur. Examination of contemporary patterns of use yields evidence of a number of trends, one of which is the growth of use of quieting rather than stimulating substances in America. Although the major function of drugs is and will be to enhance sociability, the prediction is that our society will produce more redundant people who will be at risk of disabling use and effects. Several possible sociopolitical outcomes of these trends are considered, some optimistic and some pessimistic. The importance, for anticipating the future, of the existence of a sense of destiny is suggested.