Anchor or overreach? Explaining divergent responses to Indian maritime diplomacy in Mauritius and the Maldives

As China–India maritime competition in the Indian Ocean intensifies, India’s maritime diplomacy toward small island developing states (SIDS) like Mauritius and the Maldives has become increasingly important. While Mauritius has broadly welcomed Indian regional leadership, however, the Maldives has rejected it. Why? Challenging neorealist accounts that view alignment choices as shaped by the power imbalances inherent to international anarchy, we argue that foreign policy decisions are inherently shaped by domestic political dynamics and elite preferences in both countries. In Mauritius, historical linkages and demographic ties have fostered consistent elite support for India. In the Maldives, conversely, elite factions have capitalized on anti-India sentiments to bolster policy autonomy vis-à-vis India and access Chinese capital for domestic development projects. The analysis ultimately highlights the agency of smaller states while demonstrating the need to analyse how domestic actors and processes shape decision-making processes in small states in the Indo-Pacific.