Permafrost zonation in Russia under anthropogenic climatic change

Warming induced by the hypothesized greenhouse effect will have profound consequences for permafrost distribution throughout the high‐latitude regions of the globe. Two scenarios of climate change based on the palaeo‐reconstruction method widely employed by Russian scientists were used in conjunction with a model that produces zonal maps of permafrost distribution. Changes associated with both 1.2°C and 2.0°C warming of the mean global temperature are amplified in the high latitudes, which results in the potential for a large reduction of the area underlain by continuous permafrost. Thermokarst development is likely to be particularly acute in the West Siberian plain, where the climate model suggests that conditions will become marginal for the maintenance of permafrost.