2017 One‐Year Seismic‐Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

Research Article| March 01, 2017 2017 One‐Year Seismic‐Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes Mark D. Petersen; Mark D. Petersen aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Charles S. Mueller; Charles S. Mueller aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Morgan P. Moschetti; Morgan P. Moschetti aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Susan M. Hoover; Susan M. Hoover aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Allison M. Shumway; Allison M. Shumway aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Daniel E. McNamara; Daniel E. McNamara aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert A. Williams; Robert A. Williams aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrea L. Llenos; Andrea L. Llenos bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar William L. Ellsworth; William L. Ellsworth cDepartment of Geophysics, Stanford University, 397 Panama Mall, Mitchell Building Room 373B, Stanford, California 94305 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrew J. Michael; Andrew J. Michael bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Justin L. Rubinstein; Justin L. Rubinstein bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Arthur F. McGarr; Arthur F. McGarr bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kenneth S. Rukstales Kenneth S. Rukstales aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Mark D. Petersen aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Charles S. Mueller aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Morgan P. Moschetti aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Susan M. Hoover aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Allison M. Shumway aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Daniel E. McNamara aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Robert A. Williams aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Andrea L. Llenos bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. William L. Ellsworth cDepartment of Geophysics, Stanford University, 397 Panama Mall, Mitchell Building Room 373B, Stanford, California 94305 U.S.A. Andrew J. Michael bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Justin L. Rubinstein bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Arthur F. McGarr bU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS 977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A. Kenneth S. Rukstales aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 966, Box 25046, Denver, Colorado 80225 U.S.A.mpetersen@usgs.gov Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 13 Jul 2017 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (3): 772–783. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170005 Article history First Online: 13 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Mark D. Petersen, Charles S. Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Susan M. Hoover, Allison M. Shumway, Daniel E. McNamara, Robert A. Williams, Andrea L. Llenos, William L. Ellsworth, Andrew J. Michael, Justin L. Rubinstein, Arthur F. McGarr, Kenneth S. Rukstales; 2017 One‐Year Seismic‐Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters 2017;; 88 (3): 772–783. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170005 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.