The burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to dietary risk factors in the provinces of China, 2002–2018: a nationwide population-based study

Background: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is on the rise in China, yet a comprehensive and systematic understanding of the temporal trends and distribution of CVD burden attributable to dietary factors across the provinces remains elusive. This study endeavors to provide a comprehensive depiction of the burden of CVDs attributable to dietary risk factors across China's geographical regions from 2002 to 2018. Methods: Data from the China National Nutrition Surveys, the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, the Hypertension Survey, and the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention cause-of-death reporting system were used to estimate the intake of dietary factor, the number of deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality rate, for ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhage and other stroke (HOS) attributable to dietary factors at national and provincial levels in China from 2002 to 2018. Using a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of CVDs burden attributable to suboptimal intake of seven dietary factors, both individually and collectively, among Chinese citizens aged 20 years or older. Finding: The mean consumption of whole grains, soybeans, nuts, vegetables, fruits, red meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) exhibited an upward trend from 2002 to 2018. However, with the exception of red meat and SSBs, the average intake remained below the levels recommended levels outlined in the Chinese national dietary guidelines. Inadequate fruit, whole grain, and vegetables intake were the leading dietary risk factors for IHD, IS and HOS in China, while nuts, soybean and SSB were only associated with IHD mortality. From 2002 to 2018, the number of deaths and mortality rate for CVDs attributable to suboptimal diet among Chinese males were greater than that of females. With increasing age, the diet-related mortality rate for CVDs increased substantially. In 2018, the nationwide mortality rate attributable to diet was found to be 77.9 (95% UI, 77.5-78.1) per 100,000 population for IHD, 34.1 (95% UI, 33.8-34.2) for IS, and 32.8 (95% UI, 32.4-32.8) for HOS. Suboptimal diet was responsible for 16.0 million (95% UI, 13.8-18.4) DALYs and 1137.1 (95% UI, 980.4-1312.3) DALYs per 100,000 population for stroke, and 13.9 million (95% UI, 11.8-16.3) DALYs and 990.2 (95% UI, 841.2-1158.6) DALYs for IHD. Across the provinces of China, in 2018, the highest age-standardized mortality rates of all diet-related deaths were observed in Shandong (92.8 [95% UI, 89.9-93.3]) for IHD, Heilongjiang (38.1 [95% UI, 36.2-38.8]) for IS, and Tibet (68.3 [95% UI, 65.0-70.1]) for HOS. The highest diet related DALYs were observed in Henan (1.4 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.6] for IS, and 1.3 million [95% UI, 1.1-1.5] for IHD). Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the geographic variation and temporal trends of the burden of CVDs attributable to dietary risk factors at the national and provincial levels from 2002 to 2018 in China, highlighting the need for geographically targeted intervention strategies to improve the quality of diet and reduce the diet-related burden of CVDs. Funding: National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1315303), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82103966).