Prediction of adolescent suicide: a population model

Suicide rates among adolescents (15--19-year-olds) in the United States are currently higher than ever recorded. The authors examined the relationship between suicide rates and population changes among adolescents. They found significant positive correlations between adolescent suicide rates, changes in the adolescent population, and changes in the proportion of adolescents in the population of the United States in 1933--1975. In contrast, the suicide rate of an older age group (65--69-year-olds) was inversely, but not significantly, related to shifts in that population. These results suggest that the suicide rates for the adolescent age group can be predicted, a finding which may have important public health consequences.