Projected cardiovascular mortality attributable to extreme temperatures under climate scenarios in Taiyuan, China

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

Under high-emission climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5), projected heat-related cardiovascular mortality in Taiyuan by the 2050s is 2.7 times higher than under low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6), with heatwaves exerting immediate effects that disproportionately impact women and the elderly. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Yifei Chen; Lin Ma; Chaomin Ren; X. B. Yang; Lifang Zhao; Rui Li; Shuai Guo; Na Cao; Ren Li; Junming Li; Zhihong ZHANG

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.114970

February 10, 2026iScienceOpen Access

Projected cardiovascular mortality attributable to extreme temperatures under climate scenarios in Taiyuan, China

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Why the study?

Cardiovascular disease is a serious public health challenge in China, and increasingly frequent extreme temperature events present new health threats.

Does exposure to extreme temperatures increase cardiovascular mortality under various climate change scenarios in Taiyuan, China?

Structured PICO

Does exposure to extreme temperatures increase cardiovascular mortality under various climate change scenarios in Taiyuan, China?

P

Population

54,294 cases of cardiovascular death recorded from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020, in Taiyuan, China. 56.6% male, 80.7% aged ≥65 years.

I

Intervention

Exposure to extreme temperatures (heat waves and cold waves) modeled under future CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5)

C

Comparator

Historical baseline temperatures and scenarios without climate adaptation measures

O

Outcome

Future burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to extreme temperatureshard clinical

Extreme heat waves will significantly increase future cardiovascular mortality under high-emission climate scenarios, but effective adaptation measures can substantially mitigate this excess mortality risk.

Implication

Future projections of CVD mortality from extreme temperatures in Taiyuan warrant localized adaptation planning; leaves open generalizability and prospective validation.

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a serious public health challenge in China, and the increasingly frequent extreme temperature events have brought new health threats to it. This study assessed the future burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to extreme temperatures (heat and cold waves) in Taiyuan under climate change. The analysis used historical mortality data (2013-2020) with distributed lag non-linear and generalized additive models (DLNMs/GAMs), integrated with future CMIP6 climate and population scenarios. Heatwaves exert immediate effects, disproportionately affecting women and the elderly, while cold wave impacts are delayed and more severe for men. Projections for the 2050s show heat-related mortality under SSP5-8.5 could be 2.7 times that under SSP1-2.6. The implementation of adaptation measures can significantly mitigate the risks and impacts of extreme temperatures. This study provides a scientific basis for climate-resilient health policies, with crucial implications for protecting population health.