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Variations in the ultimate first stage BOD are found to be lognormally distributed under the hypothesis that the bacterial oxidation of organic matter is a first order reaction, and that the deoxygenation coefficient is normally distributed with known parameter values of mean and variance. In the exponential decay curve for the ultimate first stage BOD, the variance in predicting ultimate BOD, increases with increase in time. Expressions for the mean, variance, and modal values of the ultimate first stage BOD are presented.
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Veerasamy Kothandaraman (1970) studied this question.
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