A catastrophe theory evaluation of a policy to control job absence

This paper investigates the relevance of catastrophe theory for describing and predicting discontinuous changes in job absence rates as a function of an organizational policy change. Subjects were 19 groups of employees from a Midwest manufacturing company, divided into two company divisions. The organizational policy regarding absence provided cash incentives for good attendance; the policy change was intended to enhance immediacy of reinforcement of decisions to go to work rather than stay home. Sixteen departments showed a reduction in job absence, which was significant by the sign test. Polynomial regression determined that difference scores were cusp-catastrophically distributed (R2 = .58; control R2 = .27, .30) with average department age as the asymmetry parameter and company division as the bifurcation factor. Results are interpreted from the context of the butterfly theory of motivation in organizations, which has implications for individual persons and for groups.