Potential for Ethnic Conflict in China

This paper, part of a broader effort to construct an analytical approach that can be used to assess near-term ethnic conflict potential in different parts of the world, examines the possibility of such conflict in China. More specifically, the authors employ a theory of measurement based on subjective judgment and pairwise comparison to quantify the factors likely to produce interethnic strife, encompassing the notion that, in most cases, ethnic conflict is driven by competition over territory. Five potential ethnic fracture zones are identified, described, and mapped. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: I31, J15, Z00. 6 figures, 1 appendix (4 tables), 51 references.