Causal analysis of earthquake concern and preparing behavior in the North Izu Peninsula

Shizuoka Prefecture in Japan is now threatened by danger of a major earthquake. This paper attempts to assess the nature and magnitude of the impact of a completely new phenomenon: The effect on people living in a broad region, caused by scientific information given to them, predicting a forthcoming disaster. A three-wave panel survey was conducted over a period of one year and three months to assess the effects of the disaster prediction upon the inhabitants of two large hot-spring tourist areas: Atami and Ito in the North Izu Peninsula. Among the results, which were derived by covariance structure analysis and other analyses, it was found that earthquake danger cognition and anxiety of the inhabitants at a given point in time affected their preparing behavior only at the same time point, but had no time-lagged effect on their preparing behavior at the next point in time.