Assessing climate and transition risks to China’s agriculture under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, both of which pose substantial threats to food security and farmers’ incomes. Understanding the trade-offs between these risks is essential to meeting climate goals and advancing sustainable agricultural development. This study establishes a comprehensive framework that integrates meta-analysis-derived parameters into the GTAP-E model to quantify the dual risks to China’s agriculture under the 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios. The results indicate that under the 2 °C scenario, weaker mitigation efforts lead to higher climate risks, with maize production, prices, consumption, and self-sufficiency changing by about 1.5 times more than that under the 1.5 °C case. Conversely, the 1.5 °C scenario, while more effective in reducing climate risks, incurs greater transition risks—livestock output declines and price rise nearly twice as much as that in the 2 °C scenario. The findings suggest that achieving climate targets requires a balanced transition strategy that strengthens agricultural resilience and ensures food security.