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Using modern time series analysis we discover a characteristic time scale in the global temperature record. This time scale corresponds to about 20 months and separates processes that promote a trend in the past from processes that reverse this tendency. This characteristic scale has important implications one of which might be that the El Niño/La Niña cycle may act as a mechanism countering the tendency of shorter time scale events to organize a positive or a negative temperature trend.
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Tsonis et al. (1998) studied this question.
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