COVID-19: extending or relaxing distancing control measures

The study by Kiesha Prem and colleagues1 in The Lancet Public Health is crucial for policy makers everywhere, as it indicates the effects of extending or relaxing physical distancing control measures on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China. Prem and colleagues1 use observed data on COVID-19 spread from Wuhan and finely detailed empirical data from China on the number of contacts per day by age group at home, school, work, and other locations.2 Their model indicates that if the physical distancing measures begun in late January, 2020, in Wuhan are gradually relaxed in March, the virus could start to resurge 3 months later in June, and generate a second peak 5 months later at the end of August, 2020.