This paper outlines the impact that the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) has had on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU), and the potential impact of the Agreement's constraints through to 2000. It notes that Agenda 2000 was driven more by the need to remain within the existing report commitments than by the prospect of EU enlargement or the challenges of the forthcoming Millennium Round. The EU's strategy presumes that the blue box exemptions will remain operative into the next decade despite the time-limited Peace Clause, Furthermore, the 'European Model for Agriculture' fails to meet the strict criteria laid down for green box measures. The Millennium Round, and EU enlargement, will undoubtedly prompt further reform of the CAP, and thus Agenda 2000 should be seen as one more small hesitant step towards fundamental CAP reform.
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Alan Swinbank (1999) studied this question.