Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances

The authors develop a generalization framework of the lagged conditional probability technique to quantify long-term memory and discover universal scaling features and crossover behaviors in earthquakes. The standard Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model that is frequently used for earthquake predictions fails in reproducing the spatiotemporal scaling of real catalogs as well as the crossover. The results suggest that aftershock rate is a critical factor to control the long-term memory.