Sexual Reconviction for Sexual Offenders Discharged from Prison in England and Wales: Implications for Evaluating Treatment

The sexual reconviction rate for sexual offenders discharged from prison has declined and both two and four year post-release rates are low. Levels of sexual offending are not falling per se as the number of reported sexual offences has risen yearly, but against this rise, the number of convictions/cautions for sexual offences is falling. The probability of a reported sexual offence leading to a conviction has been halved and this is cause for concern. The theoretical implications of the low base rate of sexual reconviction for sexual offenders discharged from prison are discussed in relation to the evaluation of treatment programmes for sexual offenders in custody. New outcome measures are proposed to supplement sexual reconviction data and the reliability of these measures are discussed.