Sources of black carbon and carbon monoxide air pollution over the Eastern Mediterranean

Air quality in the Eastern Mediterranean is significantly affected by transboundary pollution, yet the contributions from different regions and sectors remain poorly quantified. This study investigates the regional to long-range transport and source attribution of the combustion products, black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) affecting air quality in the island of Cyprus, with a specific focus on seasonal pollution episodes in Nicosia. To achieve this, the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was employed in conjunction with four global anthropogenic emission inventories (CAMS-GLOB, MACCity, EDGAR, and HTAP) to quantify the contributions of various source regions and sectors, and assess their seasonal variability. The results underscore the predominance of emissions from Turkey, particularly from the residential and agricultural sectors, as the primary contributors to degraded air quality in Cyprus. The magnitude and spatial distribution of source contributions vary considerably across inventories, with pronounced seasonal differences in transport patterns. Western and northwestern air mass transport dominates in spring and summer, while northern and eastern air mass transport is more influential during winter and autumn. Among the inventories, EDGAR exhibits the best agreement with MERRA-2. reanalysis data, especially for CO, while MACCity is associated with larger discrepancies, particularly for BC. Significant differences in sectoral attribution among the inventories underscore the uncertainties inherent in current emissions data. Discrepancies suggest the need for improved emission inventories and refined modeling frameworks to enhance the accuracy of source attribution and support evidence-based mitigation strategies for air pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region.