Geopolitical continuity? An analysis of the Turkish Straits and Russian ambitions

This paper analyses the Turkish and Russian interests in the Turkish Straits. The paper’s main argument tests the traditional theoretical principle of the permanence of geography through a framework that deploys selected aspects of the model of neoclassical geopolitics. The application of this model – a cutting-edge development in the theory of geopolitics – constitutes one of the original contributions of this paper. After clarifying our theoretical and methodological choices, the paper provides the historical context and the legal background of the Straits to expand the scope for the analysis of the distribution of power in the region. The Turkish and Russian geopolitical agents’ perceptions of space are also investigated, completing the methodological steps of the model. We performed tests of our main argument in three case studies: (1) the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, (2) the 2014 Annexation of Crimea, and (3) the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War.