Navigating a contested hierarchy: competing strategies of Japan and Türkiye in the US-led order

The US-led hierarchical order has come under increasing strain as the United States has shifted from a relatively restrained provider of international order towards a more unilateral and transactional posture, generating uncertainty among its allies. These pressures have been compounded by the rise of China and Russia, which provide alternative centres of power for some states while posing strategic threats to others. States traditionally dependent on the United States have consequently recalibrated their strategies. Two contrasting responses are high-intensity hedging and leash-slipping. Both employ similar means but pursue different ends. High-intensity hedging reinforces dependence on the United States by enhancing a state’s strategic value, whereas leash-slipping seeks greater autonomy by loosening dependence without exiting the alliance. This divergence raises a central question: why do states adopt different strategies within the same hierarchical order? This study addresses this puzzle through a three-level framework and a comparative analysis of Japan and Türkiye.