Public alignment orientation under US–China competition: Hierarchy, identity, and the Japanese case

Alignment orientation has become a defining challenge for middle-power states. The strategic competition between the USA and China places Japan in a central dilemma: securing national defense through the US alliance while sustaining economic prosperity through interdependence with China. We argue that the mass public’s alignment orientation under power transition is driven by conditional recognition of regional hierarchy filtered through dominance-oriented dispositions. Using an online survey from January 2024, we show that Social Dominance Orientation conditions how individuals interpret perceived Chinese influence and shapes their relative preferences over improving relations with China versus the USA, particularly when regional hierarchy appears unsettled rather than consolidated. Cultural similarity with China is the significant predictor of support for economic engagement, highlighting the domain-specific role of identity. Our robustness checks show that the core results remain stable across alternative specifications. The study reframes US–China dynamics as a contest over regional hierarchy and demonstrates how hierarchy preferences shape alignment adjustment under contested power.