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China and the United States are competing over economic and political influence in the Global South. However, little is known about whether citizens prefer alignment with one power over the other and what drives these preferences. Drawing on original survey data from Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa ( N = 8319), we compare citizens' general, economic, and political alignment preferences toward these two centers of power. We find that citizens across the four countries broadly support deepening relations with both China and the United States, indicating a pattern of societal polyalignment rather than exclusive alignment. Preferences vary by country: Kenya and Nigeria lean modestly toward the United States, South Africa is largely indifferent, and Ethiopia stands out with markedly stronger support for China. Beyond material considerations such as economic support, perceptions of respectful behavior and responsiveness to local needs emerge as key drivers of alignment preferences. These findings carry important implications in the context of intensifying China–United States competition, suggesting that China's pragmatic and responsive approach may be perceived as a compelling complement—or alternative—to traditional Western engagement models.
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Kostka et al. (2026) studied this question.
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