"Business as Usual" in Suharto's Indonesia

As Indonesia prepares for elections in May 1997, there are no signs that there will be any significant changes in the political system or its leadership. Instead, the last few months have shown that the New Order regime, and Suharto, are quite capable of resisting change. The cracks that appeared in the early 1990s have been skillfully mended, and Suharto emerges as the strong leader he has always been. The following analysis of recent events in Indonesia shows that democratization is unlikely to emerge in the near future. Whereas Indonesia made some progress in the early 1990s toward more open political debate, a freer press, and a higher degree of tolerance for groups opposing the regime, there has been a sharp reversal since the closure of three major newspapers and news magazines in 1994. Since then, the regime has tightened its control over the political opposition by curtailing the labor movement, forcibly removing the leader of a major political party, and cracking down on several politicians who have publicly voiced their criticisms of the government. At the same time, Suharto has tightened his noose over the political elite, especially the military. He has removed most top military officers who could potentially challenge his authority and replaced them with loyal officers. As the elections approach, warnings are being pronounced against the National Human Rights Commission, and several nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are being targeted for curtailment. The groundwork is almost completely clear to ensure a stable and smooth pesta demokrasi (celebration of democracy), as the elections are held to re-elect a Golkarand military-dominated parliament (DPR) in May 1997 and Suharto as president in 1998. This apparent stability and order, however, hides a mounting frustration with the Suharto regime, especially its methods of political control. While