The previous year-ender on Myanmar (two years ago) came at a pivotal moment in the country’s ongoing civil war. The unexpectedly well-coordinated Operation 1027 brought unprecedented victories and territorial gains by resistance forces against the military junta, seemingly putting to rest the claim that the Myanmar military could not be defeated on the battlefield. However, resistance gains have stalled since 2024, as the Myanmar military has received armament boosts from China and Russia and deployed them in indiscriminate air strikes against civilians. Federal democratic institution-building has continued among many of the ethnic revolutionary organizations, in contrast to the junta’s widely criticized elections, which were held at the end of 2025 and into 2026. This commitment to political reform also contrasts with the continued free fall of Myanmar’s economy, which was exacerbated by a devastating earthquake in March 2025 and a significant drop in international humanitarian aid during 2025.
Thein et al. (2026) studied this question.