Myanmar junta will lose further ground in near term

Significance The resistance to the junta, including People’s Defence Forces aligned with the anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) as well as ethnic armed organisations long pitted against the military, continues to make territorial gains. Impacts Myanmar’s neighbours will step up pressure on the junta to hold elections. The junta’s military and economic dependence on China and Russia will deepen. Regional drug cartels will step up trafficking through the Gulf of Thailand.