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August 14, 2019European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

In multivariable analysis, CHA2DS2VASc ≥ 2 was an independent predictor of all-cause death (aHR 2.58; 95% CI 2.42–2.76), cardiovascular death (aHR 3.40; 95% CI 2.98–3.89), ischaemic stroke (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.92–2.53) and coronary events (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.63–2.04).

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Why the study?

The CHA2DS2VASc score evaluates thromboembolic risk in non-valvular AF, but its prognostic yield for new-onset AF, cardiovascular morbidity, and mortality in a non-AF population required assessment.

Does the CHA2DS2VASc score predict new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation?

Population

22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n = 3542) and without (n = 18,367) a history of AF

Comparison

Five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0-1-2-3-≥4)

Design

Population-based cohort study

Follow-up

Median 15 years

Authors

GRGiulia RendaFRFabrizio RicciGPGiuseppe Patti

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

Supports CHA2DS2VASc for prognostication in middle-aged adults without AF; hypothesis-generating and should not change practice without further evidence.

Structured PICO

Does the CHA2DS2VASc score predict new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation?

P
Population
22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n=3,542) and without (n=18,367) a history of atrial fibrillation.
I
Intervention
CHA2DS2VASc score stratification (strata: 0, 1, 2, 3, ≥4)
C
Comparator
Comparison across different CHA2DS2VASc strata and between patients with and without atrial fibrillation
O
Outcome
Major adverse cerebro-cardiovascular events (ischaemic strokes, coronary events), mortality (all-cause and cardiovascular), and new-onset atrial fibrillationhard clinical

The CHA2DS2VASc score is a sensitive prognostic tool for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and mortality even in individuals without a prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

Cite This Study

Renda et al. (2019) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a84ae1d0d00d50aa836eac2https://doi.org/10.1177/2047487319868320
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