Why the study?
The CHA2DS2VASc score evaluates thromboembolic risk in non-valvular AF, but its prognostic yield for new-onset AF, cardiovascular morbidity, and mortality in a non-AF population required assessment.
Does the CHA2DS2VASc score predict new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation?
Population
22,179 middle-aged individuals with (n = 3542) and without (n = 18,367) a history of AF
Comparison
Five CHA2DS2VASc strata (0-1-2-3-≥4)
Design
Population-based cohort study
Follow-up
Median 15 years
Authors
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Supports CHA2DS2VASc for prognostication in middle-aged adults without AF; hypothesis-generating and should not change practice without further evidence.
Does the CHA2DS2VASc score predict new-onset atrial fibrillation and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in middle-aged individuals without atrial fibrillation?
The CHA2DS2VASc score is a sensitive prognostic tool for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and mortality even in individuals without a prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.
Renda et al. (2019) studied this question.